We are not really sure what 2024 has in store for us, but the prospects look terrible insofar as geopolitical risks are concerned. Our most precious and hard-fought national treasures of freedom and democracy are under attack by foreign governments led by oppressors and tyrants.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently issued its annual Global Risks Report for 2024, which defines global risks as “the possibility of the occurrence of an event or condition which, if it occurs, would negatively impact a significant proportion of global GDP, population or natural resources.”¹ The WEF report is developed from an extensive survey that “brings together the collective intelligence of nearly 1,500 global leaders across academia, business, government, the international community and civil society. It also leverages insights from over 200 thematic experts, including the risk specialists that form the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, Global Future Council on Complex Risks, and the Chief Risk Officers Community.”² Despite all of these experts, the WEF report grossly underestimates geopolitical risks driven by interstate armed (and unarmed) conflicts.

Underestimated geopolitical risks

The WEF surveys were completed during September 2023, and did not factor in the barbaric attacks of Hamas on Israel, and the ensuing Israel-Hamas war. They also do not take into account all other middle-east conflicts associated with the situation in Gaza (i.e. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Iranian strikes in Pakistan and Iraq). Only 25% of the survey respondents selected “interstate armed conflicts” as one of their top 5 risks “most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024”³ causing this risk to rank number 8 overall in the WEF report (Figure 1). It is clear that the significance of interstate armed conflicts is grossly underestimated in the WEF report. If the surveys were conducted today, the risk would likely rank number 1 or 2.

Visible and brutal wars – Such a long list…

Tensions are ongoing in many parts of the world, including the Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Israel war on Hamas, the threats posed by Iran and its allied foes in the middle east, the never ending saber-rattling behaviors of North Korea, and the repression, intimidation and bullying tactics of China against some of its minorities (such as Uyghurs, Tibetans, Hongkongers) and against its South China Sea neighbors, including the Philippines, Indonesia, and the free and democratic island of Taiwan. There are also many political, ethnic and religious conflicts in Africa, including but not limited to Burkina Faso, Congo, Gabon, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Somalia, Sudan and Uganda.

These conflicts are all in the news (some more than others), for the world to witness, denounce and remember. The atrocious, shameful and deceitful behaviors of those responsible shall never be forgotten. Not in this age of information. Not unless those responsible are able to destroy their surroundings, including you reading this blog, unless you are part of them, in which case you may last a bit longer. But don’t hold your breath – wolves cull their own kind to survive and thrive.

I am completely disgusted and disillusioned by these conflicts. Sometimes, the sci-fi movie enthusiast in me hopes that peaceful and advanced aliens visit earth and show us a way to live in peace and harmony.⁴ In doing so, they would most likely eliminate the evildoers among us, simply by reading their minds and looking into their past, perhaps like fortune tellers. In any event, there will be a reckoning on this earth or in the afterlife (if there is one, and I trust there is). Despots are non-believers that cannot easily be swayed. But they may be in for a severe shock if their atheism views are wrong. Or maybe they just don’t care, as long as they get their way in this life.

One has to be thinking: what is wrong with the world we live in? How can all of this happen when we are supposed to be “human.” Should we have broadcast our human genome into space, for alien civilizations to discover and possibly replicate? Not sure when I watch the news. A bit like sending a Trojan horse into space one may be inclined to think. We should be terribly ashamed of ourselves and all of our shortcomings as a human race. How we continue to pollute and deplete our planet like there is no tomorrow, how we set green targets and not take credible actions for achieving them, how we fail to provide the most basic necessities of life such as safe drinking water to billions of people, how we are unable to live in peace and harmony among nations, etc. It could all be so nice, instead of being so horrible. Live and let live – why is this so impossible for everyone to do?

Silent and insidious wars – Organized and pervasive…

Unfortunately, there is a lot more than meets the eye when it comes to human conflicts. Many wars on freedom and democracy are silent and insidious. These wars are similar to mafia trying to advance their criminal agenda, by gaining influence and control without being noticed, discovered, accused and convicted of what they do. Examples of silent and insidious wars include spying, cyberattacks, the spread of false and misleading information, the undermining of politicians and other officials with views contrary to their agenda, coercive and intimidating tactics against foreign diaspora living abroad, the corruption of politicians and officials to obtain favors in return, either amicably and/or using blackmail – whatever it takes to achieve illicit goals and objectives.

Don’t be naïve and don’t be fooled. Maleficent behaviors by foreign governments are prevalent within all democratic countries. If you have any doubts, just remember the boldness of Chinese balloons roaming the skies in Canada and the United States. Chinese authorities said they were weather balloons gone astray. After brief investigations, there was ample evidence that their purpose was to spy on Canadian and U.S. airspace, based on the technology attached to the balloons. Polite denials by China. But the evidence found does not lie, unlike what official Chinese spokespersons want you to believe. This time China was caught in the act and still denied. What else for an encore? Perhaps the balloons were just a funny diversion, to lighten things up and prevent us from overthinking about much worse things going on? Or maybe they were in fact trial balloons to gauge how foolish we are about foreign interference? It’s actually hard to believe that these baloney events (pun intended) did not occur on purpose. Hypocrisy, lies and deceit have no bounds when it comes to malicious interference by foreign governments. It’s time for all westerners to wake up, smell the coffee, wise up, and act accordingly. The leaders of regimes that suppress human rights, freedoms and democracy cannot be trusted. They are foes, not friends.

After years of hypocrisy, lying and complacency, the Canadian federal government led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party have finally admitted that there is foreign interference in Canada regarding freedom, democracy and national security concerns. Elected officials had no choice but to admit when evidence was made public by a whistleblower of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. Thank goodness for this highly courageous person who decided that more needed to be done, after years of speaking truth to power without results. Speaking truth to power does not work when the power in question is corrupt, complacent or grossly incompetent. There are no other possible explanations for why the Canadian federal government ignored the intelligence that was communicated all along. One fine mess. A great example of what not to do. A scandal to remember by all Canadians next time they cast their ballot in a federal election.

I can only hope that all of those who demonstrated a lack of judgment or complacency are held to account, and those who are directly or indirectly complicit are sentenced for high treason against my country and all Canadians of good faith. But I won’t hold my breadth. The Commission looking into the foreign interference scandal has a difficult job to do, and the Canadian government is using deceitful tactics aimed at stalling the process and diverting attention ahead of the upcoming federal election. Government officials falsely argued that it was not possible to have a public enquiry on this matter, based on months of dithering and a phony investigation led by a “special rapporteur” with no foreign intelligence credentials or experience whatsover, who was very clearly in a conflict of interest from the get-go despite all of his make-believe. There was public and media outcry, and a warning that the coalition government might collapse, forcing a vote of confidence that the Liberal party would have lost. If you have doubts about the threats and scandal that I’m referring to, consider the excerpts outlined at the bottom of this blog post, all from highly credible sources.

Our national treasures – Freedom and democracy

Freedom and democracy are national treasures that we must protect at all costs. The alternative is oppression and tyranny. Those ruling like oppressors and tyrants constantly fear that their people will revolt if they discover how their freedoms are limited and their lives oppressed. For this very reason, and also because they seek to extend their dominance, oppressors and tyrants will go as far as they can to undermine freedom and democracy. We need to be vigilant and stand firm against those intent on taking away our freedom and democracy to accommodate their oppression and tyranny. Millions of our ancestors made the ultimate sacrifice in previous wars. Those heroes are a source of inspiration for all of us to remember. Their courage and bravery must never be forgotten.

The Freedom House, a not-for-profit and non-partisan organization located in the United States, measures, tracks and reports on freedom and democracy in countries all over the world, using key indicators, facts and unbiased analyses. As stated on its website, the Freedom House “rates people’s access to political rights and civil liberties in 210 countries and territories through its annual Freedom in the World report. Individual freedoms – ranging from the right to vote, to freedom of expression and equality before the law – can be affected by state or nonstate actors.”⁵

Based on the country rankings of the Freedom House, Canada ranks number 5 on the list of highest “global freedom.” Not surprisingly the rankings of OECD countries are in sharp contrast with other countries where political, judicial and military oppression, tyranny and corruption are widely known to exist (Figure 2). I hope that the Canadian federal government will not cause Canada’s ranking to drop, by failing to address all of the serious issues of foreign interference that undermine Canada’s freedom and democracy. The Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions [Canada] will hold public hearings during 2024. It is supposed to submit a final report by December 31, 2024.⁶ Likely just a summary of what we already know.

The Freedom House global freedom country rankings are detailed on this page:

https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores?sort=desc&order=Total%20Score%20and%20Status

Excerpts for the record:

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¹  World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2024, 19^th Edition, Insight Report, p.5.
²  World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2024, 19^th Edition, Insight Report, p.5.
³  World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2024, 19^th Edition, Insight Report, p.13.
⁴  Unlike what Hollywood wants you to believe, aliens able to come to Earth are unlikely to be monster-like creatures!
⁵  Freedom House https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores?sort=desc&order=Total%20Score%20and%20Status
⁶  Foreign Interference Commission [Canada], https://foreigninterferencecommission.ca/