Ten years ago, while naysayers were still arguing that no scientific evidence was available to prove climate change despite rising global average temperatures, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations issued a report that predicted greater heat waves, worsening droughts, increasing downpours causing floods, and stronger cyclones.¹ The report was an accurate assessment of what to expect from complacency and limited actions to curb global warming.

Seven years ago in Paris, members of the United Nations promised individual plans to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It was agreed that global warming should be limited to well below 2° Celsius from pre-industrial levels² and ideally not more than 1.5°C (2.7° Fahrenheit).³ At the time of the Paris Agreement in 2015, it was estimated that average temperatures would increase 1.5°C by 2040 and more than 2.5°C by 2100 if no actions were taken.

Current situation: GHG emissions on the rise

Scientific evidence indicates that the average temperature increase is approximately 1°C (1.8°F) from pre-industrial levels.⁴ According to scientists, “at the current rate people are burning fossil fuels, only seven to eight years remain before the 1.5°C limit is passed.”⁵ This finding indicates that the average temperature increase of 1.5°C will be achieved ten years earlier than previously thought in 2015 (despite actions taken). A very alarming prospect that requires immediate attention.

The Global Carbon Project, a research consortium that advises the United Nations, estimates that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 2022 are on track to increase by 1% from 2021.⁶ This estimate does not include other sources of greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. The World Meteorological Organization reports that concentrations of these three main greenhouse gases reached record highs in 2021.⁷ Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the main sources of CO2 emissions. China is by far the biggest emitter since 2010, more than twice the United States, and more than four times the European Union. Coal is the main source of CO2 emissions, followed by oil and natural gas.

CO2 emissions account for approximately 75% of total GHG emissions, while methane is approximately 18%, and all other sources combine for the remaining 7%.⁸ Although methane emissions are much smaller than CO2 emissions in volume, they are nonetheless very problematic. It is estimated that methane is “80 times as potent at trapping heat from solar radiation as carbon dioxide over its first 20 years in the atmosphere.”⁹ According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the main sources of methane driven by human activity are coal production, oil and gas systems, livestock enteric fermentation and landfills.¹⁰ Countries that emit large amounts of methane include China, India, the United States, Russia, Brazil and Indonesia. (Figure 3).

War in Ukraine: More coal-fired power plants

The war in Ukraine is amplifying CO2 emissions because many European countries are postponing the shut-down of coal-fired power plants to compensate for the lack of cleaner natural gas no longer available from Russia. In addition, the use of coal is on the rise in countries where demand for power is growing, with China being the biggest user of coal-fired power plants by a very wide margin (Figure 4). In nine relatively large Asian markets, coal accounts for at least one third of the fuel used for power generation. In six of those nine markets, the use of coal increased during 2022.¹¹

Since coal is mostly carbon, coal-fired power plants emit a lot more GHG emissions than any other source of power generation. As such, coal is considered “the dirtiest of fossil fuels.”¹² The Secretary General of the United Nations has singled out the need for OECD countries to stop generating electricity from coal by 2030, and for the rest of the world to do so by 2040.¹³ The growing use of coal worldwide is a very troubling development, especially in countries such as China, India and the rest of Asia, which are not directly dependent on Russian gas for power generation.

COP27: No reduction of emission targets

The chances of meeting the Paris Agreement targets are fast slipping away. According to a report issued by the United Nations, GHG emissions must be reduced by 30 to 45% between now and 2030 to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and ideally not more than 1.5°C by the end of the century. However, current reduction commitments of members of the United Nations will only reduce GHG emissions 5 to 10% by 2030 (assuming they are fully implemented).¹⁴

At the recent Conference of the Parties (COP27) in Egypt, the United States and Europe sought new commitments to cut GHG emissions more aggressively. However, their negotiators were rebuffed by large developing nations such as China and India. China and India pledge to become net-zero emitters of GHGs by 2060 and 2070 respectively. If these and other current commitments are kept, they could limit global warming to 1.8°C by the end of the century.¹⁵ However, United Nations officials and scientists assert that the pledges made are mostly vague promises that do not provide much confidence that net-zero targets will be achieved.¹⁶ No new commitments were secured to accelerate GHG reductions at COP27.¹⁷ With the current policies and plans (excluding pledges) it is estimated that global warming will reach 2.6°C by 2100. Such an increase would be catastrophic.

On a positive note (the only one according to most critics) negotiators agreed on a proposal to set-up a new fund in the future to compensate poor nations for losses and damages associated with climate change. This new fund would be created in addition to the existing fund for climate-change mitigation and adaptation. Those contributing to the losses and damages fund would be developed nations, namely members of the OECD. Those eligible to receive funding would include countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and island nations in the Pacific and the Caribbean.

Surprisingly, China and Saudi Arabia consider themselves eligible to receive compensation for losses and damages associated with climate change, since they are labelled as developing countries by the United Nations Framework on climate change signed in 1992.¹⁸ Moreover, the head of the Chinese delegation at COP27 insisted that China has no obligation to provide financial assistance to poor countries. He said that any such fund is the responsibility of developed countries.¹⁹ However, representatives from the United States and Europe object that countries like China and Saudi Arabia should receive compensation, given that they are heavy polluters, and are also much wealthier than other countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and island nations in the Pacific and Caribbean.²⁰

Warning: Cooperate or perish

Cutting GHG emissions 30 to 45% by 2030 seems like an impossible objective. But doing so is required to avoid climate disaster in the future. The longer the wait, the bigger the problem and the dire the consequences. Climate change is no longer just another risk to report on. It is becoming an existential threat. World leaders need to respond accordingly. Complacency, self-interests, inaction and confrontation are putting humanity on a path to self-destruction.

In his opening address to delegates attending COP27, António Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, commented as follows: “We are in the fight of our lives. And we are losing. Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing. Global temperatures keep rising. And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. (…) We are getting dangerously close to the point of no return. And to avoid that dire fate, all G20 countries must accelerate their transition now – in this decade. Developed countries must take the lead. But emerging economies are also critical to bending the global emissions curve. (…) The two largest economies – the United States and China – have a particular responsibility to join efforts to make this Pact a reality. This is our only hope of meeting our climate goals. Humanity has a choice: cooperate or perish. It is either a Climate Solidarity Pact – or a Collective Suicide Pact.”²¹

Watch the full address of the Secretary General on this video:

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¹ Seth Borenstein, “The report was clairvoyant: UN scientists predicted extreme weather” (Globe and Mail, 09/13/2022); and Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” (Special Report of the IPCC on Climate Change, 2012, pp.13-15).
² The pre-industrial period is generally considered to be before the twentieth century (i.e. before 1900).
³ Matthew Dalton, “Climate Change Summit Leaves Hope for Limiting Global Warming” (Wall Street Journal, 11/28/2022).
⁴ Rebecca Lindsey and Luann Dahlman, “Climate Change: Global Temperature” (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce, 06/28/2022).
⁵ Laurie Goering, “Explainer: How close are we to passing 1.5 degrees Celsiusof global warming?” (Reuters, 11/14/2022).
⁶ Matthew Dalton, “Climate Change Summit Leaves Hope for Limiting Global Warming” (Wall Street Journal, 11/28/2022).
⁷ Eric Niiler, “Last Eight Years Were the Warmest in ModernTimes, U.N. Body Says” (Wall Street Journal, 11/07/2022).
⁸ Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, “Climate Change 2022, Mitigation of Climate Change” (Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022, p.TS-18).
⁹ Eric Miller and Chao Deng, “Biden Announces Restrictions on Methane Emissions at COP27” (WSJ, 11/11/2022).
¹⁰ United States Environmental Protection Agency, “Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data” (02/12/2022).
¹¹ Shane Shifflett, “COP27 Summit Begins as Economy, Ukraine War Overshadow Climate Concerns” (WSJ, 11/06/2022).
¹² The Economist, “The dirtiest fossil fuel is on the back foot” (London, 12/03/2022).
¹³ The Economist, “The dirtiest fossil fuel is on the back foot” (London, 12/03/2022).
¹⁴ United Nations, “The Closing Window: Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation (…)” (Emissions Gap Report, 2022).
¹⁵ Matthew Dalton, “Climate Change Summit Leaves Hope for Limiting Global Warming” (Wall Street Journal, 11/28/2022).
¹⁶ Matthew Dalton, “Climate Change Summit Leaves Hope for Limiting Global Warming” (Wall Street Journal, 11/28/2022).
¹⁷ Matthew Dalton and Stacy Meichtry, “COP27 Sets Up Climate-Damage Fund for Poorer Nations but Rejects Faster Emissions Cuts” (Wall Street Journal, 11/20/2022).
¹⁸ Matthew Dalton and Stacy Meichtry, “COP27 Sets Up Climate-Damage Fund (…)” (Wall Street Journal, 11/20/2022).
¹⁹ Eric Reguly, “COP27 strikes deal on fund to help poorer countries, but makes no new pledges to curb emissions” (Globe and Mail, 11/21/2022).
²⁰ Eric Reguly, “COP27 strikes deal on fund to help poorer countries, but makes no (…)” (Globe and Mail, 11/21/2022).
²¹ António Guterres, “Secretary-General’s remarks to High-Level opening of COP27” (United Nations, 11/07/2022).